Key Takeaways
Looking back
Last week was all about ETH, which made 2 sharp jumps, first from $1,930 to $1,990, and then from $2,020 to $2,120. The fact that the whole 10+% rally came within hours of the Shapella (Shanghai + Capella) upgrade somewhat validates the theory that too much fear of oversupply due to the unlock was very much priced in. ETH moved alone. BTC did make a marginal push higher just above $31k after ETH made its second move, but for the most part BTC has flatlined all week inside $29.8-$30.8k. In the mid caps, SOL pushed up almost 20%, perhaps a tailwind from the roll-out of its SAGA mobile phone; ADA meanwhile added 15% to $0.45, media attributing this move to a spike in large transactions and general move higher in terms of Cardano network activity.
Last week’s client flows again saw BTC buying of 52.9% outpacing ETH buying of 47.1%. In other coins, we have seen strong selling of LTC (61.9%) MATIC (55.8%) and BCH (68.3%); strong buying of DOT (66.8%) and XTZ (+60.9%). By geography, EMEA clients were standout buyers; by client category, banks were strong buyers.
In the interest rate world, term futures basis has not moved much since last Monday, with CME basis remaining tight with both BTC and ETH contracts for April trading at annualised premia of 10% - 15%; while crypto native exchange bases remain quite flat on the week, Binance June BTC 4.5% - 5.5% and ETH 4.0% - 5.0%. On the OTC side we have seen some interest to borrow dollars, presumably to take advantage of higher implied USD rates on perps, as leveraged players position for an alt-coin season.
Implied volatility in BTC topped out last Monday with a 60 vol flat curve, and profit takers were very evident sellers in the 48 hours leading up to CPI. When CPI came out quite in line, vol continued to drift lower, but this move accelerated into the weekend, with 21 April vol now quoted in the mid 40s. ETH has been a different story, however, as the vol spreads to BTC have widened significantly, averaging around 10 vols in the front and ~5 vols in June.
Looking ahead
There is not a huge amount of data out this week, really just China Q1 GDP Tuesday, UK inflation data Wednesday, and EU PMI’s on Friday. However, equity markets will be focussed on the continuation of Q1 earnings season, paying particular attention to banking results, and very much on the lookout for any signs of stress or fundamental changes to deposit bases and trading patterns. Crypto has done an awful lot recently, and it would not be surprising to see a flat week.
Buy/Sell Ratio by Category
Buy/Sell Ratio by Region
All data sourced from our real time systems supporting global 24/7 crypto liquidity provision
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